Independentes de quem?

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A independência dos bancos centrais tornou-se com o passar do tempo num dogma que quase ninguém se atreve a questionar. A experiência dos anos recentes, porém, obriga-nos a interrogar de quem são afinal eles independentes.

Ainda bem que Daron Acemoglu e Simon Johnson ousam partir a louça toda num artigo provocativo que vale a pena ler na íntegra:

Declaring the central bank independent doesn’t move it outside the orbit of politics.

Monetary policy has an impact on inflation, output and employment. But it also has a major impact on stock market prices. Any central banker raising interest rates is reducing stock market values and thus eroding the bonuses of top bankers and other chief executives.

Those people will lobby, asserting that higher interest rates will undermine the economy and cause us to plummet into recession, or worse.

In principle, the Fed could stand up to the bankers, pushing back against all specious arguments. In practice, unfortunately, the New York Fed and the Board of Governors are quite deferential to financial-sector “experts.” Bankers are persuasive; many are smart people, armed with fancy models, and they offer very nice income-earning opportunities to former central bankers.

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