Reestruturação ou liquidação

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Algumas sugestões sensatas para uma estratégia de reestruturação das dívidas da Grécia e da Irlanda no Baseline Scenario. Eis um extracto:

"If Greece’s reform program included a write-down of 50% (in net present value) on its debts, and they received an additional 20% of GDP in bridge financing over the next three years, its debt burden in 2013 would be a comfortable 80% of GDP. As Greek debt already trades below face value, the total additional losses to creditors could amount to 35% of debt, or approximately 100bn euros. Ireland is smaller so total costs should be less. This debt relief could be conditional on successful implementation of IMF monitored programs, similar to traditional Paris Club debt restructurings. Fears that debt relief could spark panic selling and contagion in other debt markets can be arrested through temporary interventions by the ECB, and the EU needs to publicly declare strict criteria when debt restructuring may occur.

"Opponents to debt relief for Greece and Ireland are wrong to think that Europe’s current strategy makes Europe safe from systemic collapse. The implied risk of default on Spanish, Italian and Portuguese debt rose sharply during the last month as concerns over Ireland and Greece spread, and this in turn caused yields on related bank debts to soar. The potential economic time bombs left in Europe’s periphery are growing. They can and must be resolved. Otherwise the economic and political risks might become overwhelming."

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