3.11.09

À beira do corte definitivo de relações com o Maradona

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Atrevendo-me a persistir na mesma onda de catastrofismo universal que tanto tem indisposto contra mim o Maradona, eu desconfio muito que Peter Tasker está certo quando prevê que, não tarda muito, a China vai estatelar-se ao comprido:
"At its peak, the grounds of the Imperial Palace in Tokyo had a greater theoretical value than the entire state of California. By then there was no way out – asset market collapse and financial system wipe-out were baked in the cake.

"If China continues to follow the Japanese template, the end of the dollar peg will be the trigger event, setting off a Godzilla-sized credit binge. Why would China’s rulers embark on a such a disastrous course? Because the alternative – unleashing deflationary forces stored up over years of mercantilist policies – would be too painful to contemplate. That was the choice made by Japanese policymakers, who had a hundred years’ experience of managing a quasi-capitalist economy.

"This time a denouement would be one of the biggest bubbles in history, probably in scale and certainly in number of people involved. Could China weather the subsequent financial turmoil as stoically as Japan? It seems unlikely; at the least, its ascent to global hegemony would suffer a brutal interruption."
E o que interess a China? Nada, excepto ser a prosperidade deles que tem alimentado a máquina de crédito do resto do mundo.

A coisa boa é que, na eventualidade de as coisas darem mesmo muito para o torto, a gente vai deixar de preocupar-se com a selecção nacional.
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