11.1.10

Caladinhos que nem ratos

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É muito estranho serem tão raras as vozes que, deste lado do Atlântico, saem a terreiro para admitir o óbvio:

"Back when the single currency was being contemplated, the fundamental concern of many economists on this side of the Atlantic was, how will Europe adjust to asymmetric shocks? Suppose that some members of the euro zone are hit much harder by a downturn than others, so that they have much higher-than-average unemployment; how will they adjust?

"In the United States, such shocks are cushioned by the existence of a federal government: the Social Security and Medicare checks keep being sent to Florida, even after the bubble bursts. And we adjust to a large degree with labor mobility: workers move in large numbers from depressed states to those that are doing better.

"Europe lacks both the centralized fiscal system and the high labor mobility. (Yes, some workers move, but not nearly on the US scale)."

Naturalmente, também concordo com a conclusão:

"Was the euro a mistake? There were benefits — but the costs are proving much higher than the optimists claimed. On balance, I still consider it the wrong move, but in a way that’s irrelevant: it happened, it’s not reversible, so Europe now has to find a way to make it work."

Sublinho: "Europe now has to find a way to make it work".
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2 comentários:

Pirate disse...

E parece-me que a UE tem cada vez mais dificuldades em achar um rumo certo, pese embora a inflação de tratados, instituições e acordos programáticos...
A seguir à Grécia, seremos nós.
Alguém tem dúvidas?
As agências de rating não vão em almoços grátis...

João Pinto e Castro disse...

Errado: as agências de rating alimentam-se de almoços grátis.