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Extractos do artigo de Wolfgang Munchau no Financial Times de hoje:

"I would expect the US to have something approaching a genuine recovery at some point in the next decade, but probably not in 2010 or 2011. Judging by the co-ordination failure at the level of the European Union, the persistent failure to deal with the continent’s 40 or so cross-border banks at European level, and in particular Germany’s inability to sort out its toxic-asset contaminated Landesbanken, the economic prospects for the eurozone are infinitely worse."

"With several European countries now obsessing with premature crisis exit strategies, which may kick in as early as 2010, the chances of a vicious cycle of fading economic growth, falling tax receipts, deficit cuts and further output losses are high. If Ms Yellen is right about the US economy, there will be no bail-out of the European and Asian economies through the US consumer."

"The economic policy framework of Europe’s monetary union only barely succeeded during a normal economic cycle, during which its most important framework of policy co-ordination, the stability and growth pact, was dislodged. The policy framework proved utterly dysfunctional during this economic crisis, as leaders like Angela Merkel or Nicolas Sarkozy have resorted to their nationalist instincts. It would take an even bigger crisis for them to agree on a joint resolution strategy for the banking system."

"There is a good chance they might get it."

Em resumo, é isensato planear o futuro como se pudéssemos contar com uma inversão acentuada da conjuntura económica algures entre o final deste ano e o início do próximo. Iludir as opiniões públicas a este respeito terá consequências desastrosas assim que elas se cansem de esperar e decidam começar a cobrar.
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