Afinal a intervenção da Reserva Federal foi um engano

Esta é a notícia do dia, não sendo claro se é para rir ou para chorar. Segundo o MarketWatch do Dow Jones:

The huge losses in Europe on Monday -- which caused fright throughout the rest of the world -- probably were caused as much, if not more, by Societe Generale unwinding what had been a big long position in Europe's top stock-market indexes than by any concern about the broader economy. (...)

In retrospect, the losses now make much more sense. For example, RWE , a utility, lost roughly as much as Deutsche Bank, the big bank, on Monday. If the bet is that the world, and in particular the U.S. economy, is going to go off a cliff, then RWE won't suffer nearly as much as Deutsche Bank.

However, if the DAX is being sold as a whole -- as would have happened if a big index futures position was being sold -- then those two constituents are going to be bruised fairly equally.

That's not to say that the fears of a U.S. recession aren't valid. But the market's recovery from lows earlier this week hints that perhaps those concerns were overblown.

It also raises the disturbing question of whether the Federal Reserve was spooked into making an emergency rate cut on the back of what was just technical selling. The Fed by its own admission met Monday night - after the overseas selling was clear.

This rogue trader may have ending up pressing more buttons than even he imagined.

Para quem não está a par, descobriu-se esta semana uma fraude em grande escala cometida pelo trader Jerome Kerviel na Société Générale, um dos maiores bancos europeus. Ao que parece, a brusca quebra dos mercados bolsistas na 2ª feira foi uma antecipação das consequências do buraco financeiro aberto na Société Génerale e não uma reacção à perspectiva de uma recessão nos EUA.

Como Bernanke confessou hoje não estar a par do que se passara no banco francês, parece poder concluir-se que, afinal, o corte de 75 pontos percentuais da taxa de juro decidido pela Reserva Federal resultou de um mal-entendido!

É bem verdade que os americanos andam sempre muito mal informados sobre o que se passa no resto do mundo. Ninguém pode sentir-se tranquilo com a falta de discernimento de gente que concentra tanto poder nas suas mãos.